Post-NCAA Championships Women’s Team Analysis
Updated: 24 November 2006
The following post-NCAA analysis uses estimated mid-race team scores calculated from the 3k-splits available from the official results, as well as information published in the press or institutional websites.
The intent of this analysis is to provide the reader with some context for how the team championship races played out – it’s impossible for anyone to watch the 256 individual races (217 of which affected the team scores) and fully comprehend how the individual races contributed to the team standings. While I tend to focus on the positive, the reality is that some athletes had “off-days” at the NCAA championships and these performances may have significantly affected the team scores – in the same way that a missed free throw or a fumbled football can cost a team the game. I note in advance that given the conditions, it’s likely that athletes fell, lost their shoes, or had other “catastrophes” that affected their races that I am not recording here.
Note: Since the NCAA doesn’t release the mid-race team scores calculated from the more precise times available directly from the chip mats, I had to calculate estimated scores from the 3k-splits listed on the official results. This introduces a small amount of uncertainty into the estimated team scores; most individuals will be within a couple places of their “actual” mid-race running order and the team scores within 5-10 points of their “actual” score. I will consider differences in individual and team scores within these uncertainty ranges as essentially equal in the following analysis.
The Teams:
1. Stanford 195 (71-sec 1-5 spread)
The defending champion Stanford Cardinal entered the championships as the defending champion and was ranked #1 all season. Lambie – who, along with the Trotter sisters, has now been part of three NCAA harrier titles – ran a strong race to claim fourth individually. However, most of the rest of the Cardinal struggled during the second half of the race – surprisingly given Cardinal mentor Peter Tegen’s pre-meet plan: “We wanted to make sure not to do extracurricular, heroic, or special things during the race. If they just ran to their best ability, that would do the job.”
Katy Trotter, the West Regional runner-up, was running with the leaders at mid-race, but faded over the second half to finish 78th as the Cardinal’s final scorer. Twin sister Amanda Trotter was also in the top 30 mid-race, only to fall to 70th. McWalters stayed roughly where she was at the 3K to claim 31st.
However, Flacks would save the day for Stanford. Running barely top 100 at 3k, the returning All-American moved through the field to claim 56th and seal the deal for the Cardinal.
Tegen observed following the race "I'm not sure we want to continue to see how high we can score and still win.”
2. Colorado 223 (2:01 1-5 spread)
Many coming into the championships had overlooked Colorado, the 2005 NCAA runner-ups. However, many coaches have learned the hard way to never count out the Buffalos at the NCAA championships – and Coach Mark Wetmore’s squad once again demonstrated this lesson to the rest of the country. Running only eighth mid-race, almost 200 points behind Stanford, Colorado’s runners picked up 91 points to again claim runner-up honors.
NCAA steeplechase champ Barringer ran a smart race to claim second behind Kipyego, only moving into the runner-up position in the final furlong following a furious 500-meter sprint. Two-time harrier All-American Liza Pascuito – running with a reported double stress fractures in her left leg that were so painful that she had to have a painkiller injected prior to the start, according to the Press-Enterprise -- moved up 11 places over the second 3K. Ryan (running 101st at 3k) and Maduzza (running 85th midway) both moved into the top 50, while fifth runner Marston managed to pick up eight places between the 3k and the finish.
The Buffalos actually led the Cardinal through four finishers, 92 to 133!
3. Michigan 233 (72-sec 1-5 spread)
The Wolverines rebounded from a horrible day at the Great Lakes regional to claim third at the championships. Thanks to strong second-half efforts by Edwards, Kohlmeier (moved up 20 places), Field, and Otwell, Michigan managed to keep their final score virtually the same as their mid-race score, despite Big Ten champ Erin Webster fading from the lead pack to 51st over the final 1500m.
4. Wisconsin 262 (89-sec 1-5 spread)
Big Ten and Great Lakes runner-up Wisconsin claimed the final trophy at the NCAA championships off a strong team effort. The Badgers were led by frosh Ginaker in 13th. Wisconsin maintained their mid-race score (251 for fifth) thanks to fifth runner Benson moving up 43 places to offset a teammate struggling in the second half and ended up moving ahead of Providence and Arkansas to claim fourth at the finish.
5. Arkansas 286 (47-sec 1-5 spread)
Arkansas, known for its incredibly tight 1-5 spreads (eg, 15 seconds at Dellinger, 7 seconds at the SEC meet), wasn’t able to maintain quite that tight of a pack at the NCAA meet. At 1000-meters, the Razorbacks were poised near the front of the pack – with at least three visible in a photo of mine at that point showing them running among the top 15-20 athletes. However, Christine Kalmer was spiked from behind and lost her shoe shortly after that point. The Razorbacks, who totaled approximately 250 points for fourth at 3K, were passed by Colorado and Wisconsin but also passed Providence to claim fifth.
6. Texas Tech 300 (2:28 1-5 spread)
Led by Kipyego’s dominating win and Kimaiyo’s ninth, the Red Raiders managed to finish sixth in the team’s first-ever appearance at the NCAA championships. Although she was among the leaders at the kilometer, Chemakwila slipped back to 54th by 3k, a position she maintained into the finish. Kipsang also struggled in the second half, dropping from 84th to 144th. However Diaz helped the team by moving up 30 places over the second half to claim 168th.
7. Providence 301 (69-sec 1-5 spread)
Providence only finished third at the Northeast Regional (minus Owens and Doetzel from their scorers), but rebounded at NCAAs to run third mid-race before slipping to a credible seventh at the finish – 1 point behind Texas Tech, but only three points ahead of eighth-place Illinois. Hoban continued her great senior campaign, claiming seventh after running as far back as 17th mid-race. Most of the team had gotten out strongly the first half, but wasn’t able to maintain those places. The exception to that – other than Hoban – was Owen, who moved up about 20 points over the final 3k to become the Friars’ fifth scorer.
8. Illinois 304 (1:22 1-5 spread)
Illinois was running seventh mid-race with 311 points, and essentially maintained this score at the finish – only slipping back to eighth due to Colorado’s late race surge. In particular, newcomer Bizzarri, Hunt, and Baliga all moved up in the second half to aid the Illini’s top-10 finish.
9. UC Santa Barbara 318 (70-sec 1-5 spread)
The Gauchos, who redshirted much of the team in 2005 in preparation for this fall’s campaign, had one of the NCAA field’s strongest second-half race. UCSB was in 18th with 440 points at the 3k and managed to shed 122 points over the second half to claim 9th and the highest placing in Gaucho history. Lauren Christman (21 places), Rothstein (42 places), Lewis (37 places), Lindsay Christman (16 places), and Nickless (47 places) all improved significantly over the second 3k to help UCSB finish in the top 10.
10. Duke 320 (90-sec 1-5 spread)
Duke, last year’s team bronze medallist, also ran a strong second-half race to claim tenth in the team standings; the Blue Devils were 11th at 3k with 352 points. McCabe and McKeever both ran superb second-half races to claim 14th and 17th respectively (an improvement of 12 and 15 places respectively!).
11. Minnesota 335 (79-sec 1-5 spread)
Minnesota, ranked ninth entering the meet, ran a very even race to claim eleventh. Minnesota’s website reports that Cheever, normally their third runner, was sick with flu and held together to run fifth for the Gophers.
12. Michigan State 358 (94-sec 1-5 spread)
The Spartans, ranked fourth entering the race based upon an excellent win at the Great Lakes regional, was running ninth mid-race (327) before slipping to 12th at the finish. McKaig and Rafferty ran excellent races to claim All-American honors, while Bush struggled over the second half.
13. Arizona State 375 (48-sec 1-5 spread)
Despite a couple athletes moving up and a couple others struggling in the second half, the 11th-ranked Sun Devils maintained their mid-race score of 376 and 13th-place standing all the way into the finish. Kingma, Kielty, and Hardt moved up over the final 3k, while normal 1st or 2nd runner Rios struggled in the second half and was their 4th runner at the finish.
14. Virginia 383 (98-sec 1-5 spread)
The 27th-rated Cavaliers featured one of the biggest differentials between their pre-meet rankings and their final finish, improving 13 spots over their rankings. UVa was running 15th mid-race with 412 points and improved to 14th with 383 points at the finish, thanks primarily to the strong second half by All-American Harrison (25 place improvement), Read (14 places), and Hodges (17 places) plus a strong overall race by All-American Scanlin.
15. Georgia 401 (42-sec 1-5 spread)
The 15th-ranked Bulldogs equaled their pre-meet rankings by moving up six places and sixty points over the final 3k – all despite apparent off days by their normal top-two runners Steffens and Heffelfinger. Picchetti (20 places), S. Madebach (16 places), and Vernon (56 places) all moved up strongly over the second half the course to ensure Georgia’s 15th-place finish.
16. Georgetown 403 (85-sec 1-5 spread)
The 18th-ranked Hoyas slightly improved upon their pre-meet rankings despite having one of their larger 1-5 spreads of the season. Sixteenth midway with 419 points, the Hoyas managed to lower there score enough to maintain sixteenth at the finish. Grelli and Malloy each picked up a couple places during the second half, while Infield moved up 43 places during the final 3k.
17. Iowa 409 (2:15 1-5 spread)
The Hawkeyes finished 17th, comfortably ahead of their #24 ranking. Nukuri, who had struggled through the middle of the season with sub-par performances, repeated her strong effort from the Midwest Regional (which she won) with an eighth-place finish. Iowa was 20th at the 3k with 458 points, but excellent second-halves by Nukuri, Marchand, Armstrong, Schmidt, and Burke helped the Hawkeyes shed 49 points to move into 17th.
18. Virginia Tech 417 (29-sec 1-5 spread)
The twentieth-rated Hokies nearly equaled their 28-sec 1-5 split from the Southeast Regional to beat their pre-meet rankings in their first-ever NCAA finals appearance; this is the tightest 1-5 gap in the field. VTech was in 19th place at the 3k with 453 points and benefited from strong second 3ks by Tasmin & Jess Fanning (25 & 36 places respectively) and Sherbak (28 places) respectively.
19. North Carolina State 427 (2:22 1-5 spread)
Despite an excellent run by team leader Julia Lucas to claim fifth individually as well as an All American performance by newcomer Bona Jones (26th), the #3 ranked Wolfpack struggled home in 19th. Fourteenth at the 3k with 399 points, NC State slipped to 427 points and 19th at the finish. NC State's website reports that Tinsley, the team's normal #3 runner got sick during the race and failed to score for the Wolfpack.
20. Iona 431 (1:39 1-5 spread)
The 19th-rated Gaels nearly equaled their pre-meet ranking in their first-ever team appearance at the NCAA finals, helped along by a superb 21st-place effort by Plank, who also led Team USA in last springs World Junior cross country race. Kosgei, who led the team much if the season, challenged NCAA champ Kipyego for the first 800 of the race and still ran at the fore of the chase pack at 3k (where the Gaels sat 12th with 363 points) before slowly drifting backwards over the final half to 52nd.
21. Florida State 436 (73-sec 1-5 spread)
Running 17th midrace with 427 points, Florida State managed to beat their pre-meet #29 poll rating to claim 21st. Newcomer Kuijken earned All-America honors with her 27th-place effort, while Debbie Huss and Bowerman both managed to pick up some places during the final 3k; the institutional website noted that Amy Huss was unable to score for the Seminoles due to a strained groin muscle.
22. Brigham Young 448 (2:10 spread)
Despite an excellent run by former NCAA steeplechase champ Kassi Anderson, who finished sixth to cap off a remarkable recovery from a 2004 accident in which she was run over by a truck while on a bike ride, the four-time NCAA champs struggled to finish 22nd. The Cougars had senior captain Breanne Sandberg sick with the flu and Whitney McDonald suffering from a recent injury. BYU was running 23rd at 3k with 483 points, and thanks to strong second half races by Anderson, Fowler (who improved 30 places!), Heiner, and McDonald, the Cougars moved into 22nd place with 448.
23. Princeton 454 (39-sec 1-5 spread)
The 13th-ranked Tigers fell to 23rd at the NCAA finals. Running 24th with 506 points midrace, Princeton's VanLeuven, Swenson, Johnson, and Catha Mullen all improved over the second to help the Tigers move up a place and drop their score to 454.
24. Colorado State 475 (60-sec 1-5 spread)
The #22 rated Rams narrowly missed equaling their pre-meet ranking. Colorado State was running 22nd mid-race with 477 points and managed to maintain this score through to the finish, but that wasn't enough as both BYU and Princeton knocked the Rams back a couple places in the final standings. Team leader April Thomas reportedly just missed All-American honors.
25. Weber State 488 (46-sec 1-5 spread)
Weber State, ranked 26th in the final pre-meet poll, improved over the second half of the course to improve from 26th (547 points) to 25th at the finish. Haws, Bouwhuis, and Long all picked up places to help the Wildcats move into 25th.
26. Florida 536 (48-sec 1-5 spread)
The #23 Gators were running 28th midrace, with 589 points, in their first appearance at this meet since 1999. Kruzel, Geissler, Kramer, Johnson, and Nawrocki all picked off competitors to help Florida move through the field at the finish.
27. Wake Forest 554 (2:37 1-5 spread)
The unranked Demon Deacons maintained 27th place and their mid-race team score from 3k through to the finish. Michelle Sikes, who was named a Rhodes Scholar that weekend, claimed 15th overall.
28. Tennessee 565 (43-sec 1-5 spread)
The #25 Lady Vols equaled their ranking midrace with a 3k score of 508, but struggled over the second half and slipped to 28th.
29. Baylor 631 (68-sec 1-5 spread)
The 30th-ranked Bears were 29th at the 3k and maintained this placing through to the finish. The Bears were hurt this season by the loss of Erin Bedell (mono) and Brittany Brockman.
30. Boston College 661 (1:58 1-5 spread)
Despite an All-American performance by Champa, the Northeast regional champs struggled at the NCAA championships. The #16 Eagles were missing Coon from their lineup, who reportedly was sick with the flu. Champa moved up to 38th after running 51st at the 3K.
31. North Carolina 755 (2:36 1-5 spread)
The unranked Tar Heels claimed 31st despite a an All-American performance from Felnagle, who finished 22nd individually after running 38th midrace.